Low Turnout With Angry Voters: Why Ondo May Not Be Automatic For APC in 2027 – Amb Akinmosun Kolawole

I am from Irele, in Ondo South senatorial district of Ondo State. Let me talk from the heart, not as a supporter of anybody. I am just a son of the soil watching what is happening.

After the APC primaries for Senate and House of Representatives, the National Working Committee overturned results in many constituencies. In Ondo Central, Adegbonmire replaced Fasoranti. In Ondo North, Ipinsagba replaced Elegbeleye. In my own Okitipupa/Irele, Odimayo replaced Daramola. The same thing happened in Owo/Ose, Ilaje/Ese Odo, Idanre/Ifedore, Ondo East/Ondo West, and Ile Oluji/Okeigbo/Odigbo. The party says the NWC has final say. But many of us see it as selection, not election. Delegates queued. Aspirants spent money. Supporters rented canopies. Then one phone call from Abuja changed everything. That is the bitterness.

Some aspirants were told to step down. Some refused. Some won at the primary and were replaced the next day. Some are in court now. The party calls it reconciliation. We call it something else. When you take a ticket from someone who has grassroots support, you are not just removing one person. You are removing the people who believed in him. Those people may stay home on election day. They may vote for another party. They may even work against the party quietly. That is the danger.

The fallout is not small. People are leaving. Some are moving to other parties to contest. In Irele, over 500 PDP members defected to APC. So the movement is both ways. This is not about ideology. It is about who feels cheated and who feels promised something better. Politics here is about survival. It is about who will control the local government, the contracts, the empowerment, the little money that reaches the ground. When you change a candidate, you are changing the whole chain of patronage. You are changing who eats and who cries. So people will not forget easily.

Now to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Ondo State was his in 2023. He won here. But 2027 is not 2023. The local APC is wounded. The low turnout in the last bye election, around 10.5 percent, is a red flag. If the grassroots are angry, no amount of national campaign will save any candidate. Tinubu’s name is strong, but it is not magic. If the party leaders continue to impose candidates and call it reconciliation, they may hand Ondo to the opposition. If Tinubu loses Ondo, he should blame his own party leaders, not anybody. The same people who shout his name in Abuja are the ones destroying the party at home.

I will say it plainly. Those primaries looked less like primaries and more like auctions. Some leaders sold tickets to the highest bidder. They used federal power to impose candidates. Then they call it peace. That is not peace. That is robbery. People are joining APC from other parties, but that does not mean the grassroots are happy. It shows APC is now a market where anybody can buy space. The real party members are watching. They are not fools.

For those of us in Ondo South, especially Irele, Okitipupa, Ilaje, and Ese Odo, this is not just about who goes to Senate or House of Reps. It is about who will speak for us. We are oil producing. We have been patient. But patience has limits. The way Okitipupa/Irele was handled shocked many of us.

I am not against anybody. I am just from Irele. But if APC thinks Ondo is automatic, they are joking. They must heal these wounds. They must respect the grassroots. They must stop treating party members like slaves. Otherwise, even Tinubu’s name may not save them in 2027. That is the bitter truth.

Kolawole Akinmosun
14th September 2026

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